Former President Donald Trump appears to be gaining traction among voters who previously supported President Joe Biden in 2020, according to a recent national poll conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL). The survey, conducted from April 8 to 20, indicates a close race between the two candidates, with Trump leading Biden by a narrow margin of 47 to 45 percent among likely voters, but shows significant shifts in voter allegiance from last election.
Among the key findings of the poll is the indication that a notable portion of voters who supported Biden in 2020 are now considering casting their ballots for Trump in the upcoming election. Approximately 6 percent of anticipated Biden voters for 2024 reported having voted for Trump in 2020. Conversely, 7 percent of expected Trump voters for 2024 stated they had supported Biden in the previous election.
The poll shows a dramatic change from 2020, where Biden had secured a six-percentage-point lead over Trump. It attributes the flip among Biden voters to Trump, as well as Trump’s lead among general voters to an erosion of support for Biden among Democrats.
The survey, which polled 745 likely voters nationwide, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Its results come at a crucial juncture, with less than seven months remaining until the long-anticipated rematch between Biden and Trump. Both candidates are actively seeking to broaden their appeal to voters while grappling with a range of policy and legal challenges that have caught the public eye.
In recent months, Biden’s administration has faced scrutiny, particularly regarding its response to issues such as illegal immigration and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Additionally, recent protests on college campuses, have drawn further attention to the administration’s handling of sensitive foreign policy matters. Among young Democrats, Biden’s ardent support of Israel has damaged his support.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to juggle a series of legal challenges stemming from various criminal charges. His ongoing trial in Manhattan, related to alleged hush money payments, is just one among countless legal battles he faces. Despite these challenges, Trump maintains his innocence in all cases and remains an influential figure within the Republican Party.
While a portion of Republican voters say that a conviction in one or more of Trump’s trials could affect their voting decisions, most Trump voters polled say they will vote for him in November no matter what. The majority of Trump supporters have remained steadfast in their support for the former president, indicating that legal proceedings may have limited impact on their voting preferences.
Among Trump voters, 67 percent stated that a conviction would have no impact on their support for the former president. However, 24 percent indicated they would be less likely to vote for Trump in such a scenario. Similarly, 27 percent of independent voters expressed decreased inclination to vote for Trump if he were to be convicted. Yet, it remains unlikely as to whether the former president will be convicted before the election and to what effect it will have on his support. Yet even with the legal hurdles that Trump faces, given the 8-point flip in support from Biden to Trump since 2020, Democrats have cause for concern.